A dual-mode satellite analysis using NDMI, NBR, NDVI, and NDWI that helps forest managers assess fire risk before it strikes — and map burn severity for recovery after the flames are out
A Report for Both Sides of the Fire Line
Wildfire is one of the most destructive forces facing forest managers today. With fire seasons growing longer and more intense across Europe, North America, and beyond, the ability to assess risk before a fire and measure damage after one is no longer optional — it's essential.
The Forest Fire Resilience Report from AgroReport is unique in offering both capabilities in a single, dual-mode analysis. By analyzing four satellite-derived indices — NDMI, NBR, NDVI, and NDWI — and comparing them against a 5-year regional baseline, the report delivers science-backed insights whether you're planning prevention measures or navigating post-fire recovery.
Pre-Fire Mode: Understanding Your Risk
Before fire season begins, the report analyzes four satellite-derived vegetation indices — NDMI, NBR, NDVI, and NDWI — to quantify the factors that make your forest vulnerable:
💧 NDMI — Vegetation Moisture Analysis
The Normalized Difference Moisture Index is the single most important satellite-derived metric for fire risk assessment. It measures the water content in live vegetation, which directly affects flammability. An NDMI value of -0.25 or lower indicates extreme vegetation dryness — the kind of conditions where a spark can turn into a catastrophe within hours. Because vegetation moisture is the strongest predictor of fire spread, NDMI carries 60% of the weight in the composite Fire Risk Score.
📉 NBR — Fuel Condition & Burn Assessment
The Normalized Burn Ratio is essential for assessing both pre-fire fuel condition and post-fire severity. In healthy forests, NBR ranges from 0.3 to 0.8, reflecting moist, vigorous vegetation with low fuel vulnerability. Values below -0.1 typically indicate burn scars, bare soil, or severely degraded vegetation — making NBR a critical early-warning signal alongside NDMI. In the Fire Risk Score, NBR contributes 25% of the weight, capturing fuel-condition dynamics that NDMI alone cannot see.
🌿 NDVI — Canopy Density & Fuel Load
Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, the report estimates the quantity and distribution of combustible biomass across your property. A high NDVI (>0.5) signals dense canopy — which means high fuel load if moisture conditions are dry. NDVI works in tandem with NBR: while NDVI measures how much vegetation is present, NBR reveals its condition. In the Fire Risk Score, NDVI contributes 15% of the weight, reflecting fuel load as a secondary risk amplifier.
🔥 Fire Risk Score (0–100)
The report computes a weighted composite score from the three primary fire-risk indices into a single, easy-to-understand metric on a 0–100 scale. NDMI drives 60% of the score (vegetation moisture is the #1 predictor of fire spread), NBR contributes 25% (fuel condition and degradation), and NDVI contributes 15% (fuel load as a risk amplifier):
- 0–25 (Low): Moist conditions, low fuel load — minimal fire risk.
- 26–50 (Moderate): Normal seasonal conditions — standard precautions advised.
- 51–75 (High): Dry vegetation, significant fuel load — active monitoring and preparedness recommended.
- 76–100 (Extreme): Critical moisture deficit, heavy fuel load — immediate risk mitigation actions warranted.
📜 Historical Fire Context
The report cross-references your property with NASA MODIS fire records dating back to 2000, identifying how many times the area has burned in the past and whether your land sits within a historically fire-prone corridor.
📈 Regional Baseline Comparison
Every index value is compared against its 5-year historical range for the specific location. This critical context prevents false alarms — an NDMI reading that looks low in absolute terms may be perfectly normal for a Mediterranean forest in August. The report only flags values as anomalous when they fall outside the historical min-max range, ensuring that risk assessments and recovery recommendations are grounded in local ecological reality, not generic thresholds.
Post-Fire Mode: Measuring the Damage
After a fire, the report switches to burn severity assessment using the USGS-standard dNBR (Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio) methodology:
dNBR Burn Severity Mapping
The dNBR compares pre-fire and post-fire NBR values to classify every pixel into standardized severity categories. The USGS thresholds are: 0.10–0.27 (low severity, surface fire with canopy largely intact), 0.27–0.44 (moderate-low, partial canopy scorch), 0.44–0.66 (moderate-high, significant canopy mortality), and >0.66 (high severity, near-complete mortality with soil exposure). This is the same methodology used by the USGS and forest services worldwide.
Phased Recovery Planning with Milestones
Based on burn severity, the report outlines a phased 5-year recovery plan with specific monitoring milestones at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months post-fire. Each milestone tracks NDVI, NBR, and NDMI recovery against pre-fire baselines. High-severity zones may require replanting and erosion control; moderate-severity zones may benefit from natural regeneration monitoring; low-severity zones may need only basic observation.
Erosion & Watershed Risk
The report identifies slopes and drainages where severe burning has removed protective ground cover, flagging areas at elevated risk for post-fire erosion, debris flows, and water quality impacts.
Long-Term Monitoring Plan
The report includes a dedicated monitoring schedule with specific NDVI, NBR, and NDMI recovery thresholds for each milestone. It tracks recovery trajectory from pre-fire baseline through post-fire acute phase to mature recovery, and defines when the forest can transition from intensive recovery monitoring back to routine forest health surveillance.
Who Should Use This Report?
Forest Owners in Fire-Prone Regions
Run a pre-fire assessment at the start of each dry season to understand your current risk level and prioritize mitigation actions — fuel breaks, thinning, or increased patrols.
Insurance & Risk Assessment Professionals
Use the fire risk score and historical fire data as objective inputs for underwriting and premium calculations for forest properties.
Post-Fire Recovery Teams
Quickly assess the extent and severity of burn damage across large areas. The dNBR maps provide a standardized, defensible basis for allocating recovery resources and applying for disaster relief funding.
Conservation Organizations
Monitor fire-prone preserves, document fire impacts for grant reporting, and plan habitat restoration based on burn severity data.
Complementary Reports
For comprehensive forest management, pair the Fire Resilience Report with our Forest Health & Change Detection report. Together, they cover the full spectrum of forest monitoring — from ongoing health surveillance to fire-specific risk assessment and recovery.
Get Your Free Forest Fire Resilience Report
Whether you're preparing for the upcoming fire season or recovering from a recent burn, satellite data gives you the objective, science-backed information you need to make the right decisions. AgroReport's Forest Fire Resilience Report is generated in under 15 minutes — completely free.
Questions about the Forest Fire Resilience Report? Reach us at contact@agroreports.org